IEA Jet Fuel Warning Exposes Fragile Global Trade: 33% of World Commerce at Risk Amid Energy Crisis

Rising geopolitical tensions and fuel supply risks are pushing nations to accelerate renewable energy adoption for security and climate stability.

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The world woke up to a dire realisation recently, when Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), urged the global community to exercise caution in light of recent developments which could lead to Europe facing consequential constraints on its jet fuel supplies within the immediate near term, unless supply returns to status quo ante.

The impact of the ensuing chaos will have a ripple effect that will be felt well beyond Europe with the potential to disrupt global trade and supply chains, air freight which carries approximately 33% of global trade by value 1 (pharmaceuticals, electronics, semiconductors, perishables) will stall, as also humanitarian and medical aid etc., not to mention the growing global geopolitical instability.

Historical Turning Point

While dark clouds looming over the chokepoint that is the Strait of Hormuz, named so after Ahura Mazda the ancient Persian/Zoroastrian God of wisdom, may have reached shores beyond the Strait, has a perceptible silver lining.

It comes in the form of a historical turning point, to not only accelerate the urgent central goal of the 2015 Paris Accord to restrict global average temperature increases to well below 2°C and limiting the increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but also indeed as recent global events have underlined, the heightened importance of reducing dependence on imports for energy security, for India and the global community.

As it stands, it is no longer a wake-up call but a clear warning to significantly ramp up the deployment of renewable sources of energy to address two critical objectives: a) mitigate global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions b) consolidating greater energy self-reliance and independence.

Strides by India & its Global Partnerships

Goal 13 of the UN SDGs states: Take Urgent Action to combat climate change and its impacts 2 . To
achieve this goal, economies must collectively work in tandem because the climate change crisis is a
global concern that cannot be solved individually.

In doing so, multilateral partnerships address SDG 17 (Global Partnerships) as climate action requires shared technology, cross border expertise and financing. The UNFCCC has categorically stated that to accelerate the transition to clean energy systems, supporting the Global South, closing the gap between governments, businesses and civil society, effective collaborations are critical and necessary.

While India has made laudable progress in climate action, notably by surpassing its renewable energy targets (Nationally Determined Contributions/NDCs) by achieving 50% of installed solar capacity five years ahead of schedule, its share of conventional sources of energy stands unchanged at a constant 25% 3.

The country’s primary energy mix and electricity generation continue to comprise of conventional or fossil fuels given that the socio-economic landscape has developed around a coal-based economy.

However, in light of its larger commitments toward achieving the NDCs, the country’s policies and multilateral collaborations with international partners are rapidly developing robust ecosystems to integrate renewable and alternative sources of energy to ensure its transition towards a low carbon economy moves a pace.

Notable endeavours include, the India-Denmark Green Strategic Partnership (GSP), India-Netherlands partnership on Climate and Energy, India Sweden Innovations Accelerator, LeadIT, India Sweden SITE Network etc., that are powering clean energy transition and industrial decarbonisation across the country.

India’s ambitious renewable energy targets are also being supported by the European Union’s EU-India Clean Energy and Climate Partnership which underscores the energy and climate policy of both governments and the third phase of the CECP (2025-28) comprehensively covers renewable hydrogen, energy efficiency, offshore wind, regional connectivity and energy diplomacy 4.

Building on this momentum, following the historic EU-India FTA announcement (to be ratified by the EU Parliament) in January 2026 at New Delhi, the 16 th EU-India Summit saw the creation of an EU-India Task Force on Green Hydrogen including the announcement of an EU-India Wind Business Summit scheduled for 2026.

Furthermore, support has been committed by the European Investment Bank (EIB) for the country’s Green Hydrogen projects along with the development of a robust ecosystem to drive it. The above instances of collaborations exemplify steps initiated to address the aforementioned critical objectives of mitigating GHG emissions and tightening energy independence.

It also addresses the UN’s underlying commitment towards its ‘Leave No One Behind’ policy, as the transition to a low carbon economy must reach the furthest behind first, for it to be complete and just.

This is the underlying cornerstone of CRB’s vision and larger strategy for the next five years, as it strives to further these multilateral partnerships across industry sectors with businesses, policy experts, on- ground practitioners, stakeholders and other actors, with the aim of initiating a systemic transformation.

On Earth Day it is imperative for the global community to take stock of its collective commitments, specifically in context of recent systemic tremors (as expressed by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman) 5 , for these events will decide the pace at which the global community transitions to meet its net zero ambitions.


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author, Anamika Ghosh, Senior Programme Manager at the Centre for Responsible Business, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Logical Indian.

Also read: Shiva Narwal Takes Gold in 10m Air Pistol: India Opens ISSF Junior World Cup With 3 Medals

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