As daily COVID-19 cases in India plateau at around the 40000 mark, researchers from IIT said that the 3rd wave could arrive as soon as As daily COVID-19 cases in India plateau at around the 40000 mark, researchers from IIT said that the 3rd wave could hit as soon as August. The researchers, Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at IIT Hyderabad and IIT Kanpur, respectively, developed a mathematical model to forecast the coming wave, Bloomberg reported.
Peak In October
The model suggests that the cases could peak in October, although the third wave will not be as devastating as the second one. In the best-case scenario, India would see less than 1,00,000 a day. Cases could rise to about 1,50,000 in the worst case. Earlier, these researchers had accurately predicted the second wave in the country, which took countless Indian lives.
The second wave peaked on May 7 at over 4,00,000 cases daily, after which the cases declined sharply. The research said that the third wave would be much smaller in comparison but emphasized the need to remain vigilant against the virus. They suggested ramping up vaccination while deploying efficient surveillance methods to detect and contain hotspots.
Maharashtra and Kerala Regions of Concern
In an email sent to Bloomberg, Vidyasagar said that states like Maharashtra and Kerala could turn the situation in an oblique position. Currently, Kerala is reporting more than half of the total Covid cases in the country. Experts, however, believe that the high number of cases could be because of Kerala's higher rate of testing and underreporting of cases in other parts of India.
Maharashtra, which saw the worst of COVID-19 during the second wave, could once again become a hotspot. The high infection rate in the North-Eastern states of the country is another reason for concern.
After a steady decline in cases since the peak of the second wave, the number of daily infections has remained stable in the last few days. Experts fear that with normal life picking pace, complacency among masses could set in again.
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