India will be among the world's large economies to be severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdowns, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.
The data was published on Tuesday, March 9, as a part of OECD's Interim Report on Economic Outlook March 2021. It predicted that the country's real GDP value for the fourth quarter of 2021 to be 7.8 per cent lower than the organisation's pre-pandemic outlook, Scroll.in reported.
The sharp fall comes even though the country is expected to be the fastest-growing economy in 2021, with GDP up 12.6 per cent as per the OECD. The report stated that this is undermined by the fact that the economic hit due to COVID-19 was severe, with an estimated shrinkage in GDP to 7.4 per cent in 2020. As a result, the estimated shrinkage of Q4 2021 GDP, when measured with pre and post lockdown predictions, is the largest.
The Union government time and again mentioned that the country's fast growth after the lockdown was lifted, calling it a 'V-Shaped' recovery.
However, the experts said that India might take longer than expected time to recover the economic damage caused by the pandemic and get back to the pre-COVID-19 times.
Apart from India, the organisation estimated the real GDP value for the European Union to be -3.8, and -1 for China. For the United States, the expected GDP is 0.2 per cent higher than the earlier estimates.
"The significant fiscal stimulus in the United States, along with faster vaccination, could boost US GDP growth by over 3 per cent this year, with welcome demand spillovers in key trading partners," the report added.
The report did not explicitly describe India's recovery yet. It stated that the rebound in countries including China, India and Turkey was possible by strong fiscal, quasi-fiscal measures and recovery in the manufacturing and construction sectors.