The average number of terror related incidents in Jammu & Kashmir have decreased fivefold during the seven-year period from 2011 to 2017 compared to the period from 2004 to 2010. However, the last two years (2016 & 2017) have seen increased terror activity in Jammu & Kashmir with security forces suffering the highest casualties after 2007.
Five army men were killed recently after Pakistan opened fire, in violation of ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). In terms of the number of casualties, 2016 & 2017 have proved to be the bloodiest years for security forces in J&K after the year 2007. In the year 2007, security forces suffered 110 casualties in J&K. After 2007, the number of casualties was less than 80 in each of the years except in 2016.
Significant decline in the number of Terror related incidents in J&K
The number of terror related incidents in J&K has significantly come down in the last seven years compared to seven-year period before that. Between 2004 & 2010, the average number of terror related incidents in J&K was 1287. The average has come down to 260 for the period between 2011 & 2017. A total of 2565 terror incidents were witnessed in 2004 while it has come down to 337 in 2017 (as of 15th December 2017). But in both 2016 & 2017, the number of incidents was more than 300 while it was about 200 incidents in each of the four years before 2016.
2016 & 2017 prove to be the bloodiest years after 2007
In the year 2004, 281 security personnel were killed in terror related incidents in J&K. The casualty figure has decreased continuously in the years after 2004 and reached 75 in the year 2008. The casualty figure has remained at less than 75 till the year 2015. But in the year 2016, the casualty figure increased to 82, the highest in 10 years on account of increased terror activity. In 2017, the figure stands at 75 (up to 15th December 2017). In other words, 2016 & 2017 are proving to be bloodiest years for the security forces after 2007.
The increase in terror related activity is also evident in the casualty figure of the terrorists. Between 2011 & 2015, the casualty figure of the terrorists was about 100 or less in each of the years. In 2016, it increased to 150 and further increased to 206 in 2017. The terrorist casualty figure has crossed 200 for the first time after 2010.
Infiltration attempts also on the rise
The increase in terror related activity is further corroborated by the steep increase in the number of infiltration attempts across the LoC. From 489 such attempts in 2010, the number of infiltration attempts had come down to 121 in 2015. In 2016, it has more than tripled to reach 364.
There has also been a steep increase in the number of ceasefire violations by Pakistan along the LoC. The number of ceasefire violations have increased from about 44 in 2010 to 771 in 2017.