US President Donald Trump threatened on Thursday to impose a 50 per cent tariff on all Canadian aircraft sold in the United States and “decertify” Canadian-built planes unless Ottawa immediately approves certification for US-made Gulfstream business jets – a move that sharply escalates the trade dispute with Canada.

President Trump’s latest salvo in a simmering trade rift with Canada centres on what he says is an unfair regulatory blockade of Gulfstream Aerospace jets – high-end business aircraft manufactured in the United States.

In a post on his social media platform, Trump said the United States would withdraw certification of Canadian-built aircraft – including Bombardier’s Global Express business jets – and slap a 50 per cent tariff on any Canadian aircraft sold into the US unless Transport Canada approves the certification of several Gulfstream models.

Trump did not spell out when the tariff would take effect, but his declaration came as part of a broader pattern of aggressive trade rhetoric from Washington.

The President accused Canadian regulators of “wrongfully, illegally, and steadfastly” refusing to certify Gulfstream models such as the G500, G600, G700 and G800 – advanced aircraft he characterised as key to American manufacturing and jobs.

In his post, Trump said the United States was “hereby decertifying their Bombardier Global Expresses, and all aircraft made in Canada,” adding that this would remain in place “until such time as Gulfstream, a Great American company, is fully certified.”

In response to the situation, Québec-based Bombardier confirmed it was in talks with the Canadian government to address the escalating dispute. Bombardier noted the uncertainty and potential economic repercussions of decertification and tariffs, particularly given the integrated nature of aerospace manufacturing across North America.

What the Certification Dispute is About

Behind the headlines is a technical but strategically important issue: aircraft certification. In global aerospace practice, an aircraft’s design and safety certification is granted by a national regulator – in this case, Canada’s Transport Canada Civil Aviation (TCCA) – and then validated by other states if needed.

Gulfstream jets already certified by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Europe’s EASA have been awaiting Canadian validation, which is required before they can be registered and operated there.

Trump and his supporters argue that Ottawa’s delay effectively shuts Gulfstream out of the Canadian market and disadvantages American manufacturers.

But industry experts and aviation regulators have pointed out that certification reviews are technical and safety-focused, and Transport Canada has not indicated a deliberate refusal to approve models for commercial or technical reasons.

Moreover, the FAA – not the US President – traditionally controls aircraft certification in the United States, and can only revoke certificates on safety (not economic) grounds. As such, some analysts question the legal and practical feasibility of Trump’s decertification threat, even as the rhetoric itself fuels uncertainty.

The certification row comes at a time when both countries’ aerospace sectors are deeply intertwined: thousands of Canadian-built aircraft operate in the United States, and many regional jets and private aircraft relied upon by American carriers and private operators are made in Canada.

Economic and Diplomatic Stakes for Canada and the US

Canada’s aerospace industry is a major economic pillar, contributing tens of billions of Canadian dollars to GDP and supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs. Bombardier remains one of the country’s largest exporters, and its jets are widely used in North America.

A 50 per cent tariff on Canadian aircraft imports could dramatically raise costs for US buyers, disrupt existing contracts, and potentially lead to retaliatory measures.

For the United States, the move is also about political signalling. Trump’s administration has repeatedly framed trade actions as part of a broader effort to correct perceived imbalances with trading partners, especially on manufacturing and market access issues. The tariff threat against Canada follows recent warnings of sweeping tariffs on other Canadian imports and criticism of Canadian trade diversification efforts.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has publicly defended Canada’s sovereignty and regulatory independence. In remarks this week, Carney said he expects the United States to respect Canada’s decisions and reiterated that aviation safety regulators should operate free from political interference.

Industry voices have also raised concern about the potential broader impact. Airlines including major US carriers that operate Canadian aircraft have warned that any disruption to certification norms or tariffs could ripple through the North American aviation system and raise costs for passengers, operators and supply chains.

Political Context and Broader Trade Friction

The tariff and certification clash between Trump and Canada unfolds against a backdrop of widening trade tensions between the two neighbours. In recent months, Trump has levied other tariff threats related to Canadian trade deals with third countries and broader geopolitical disagreements.

Ottawa, for its part, has sought to diversify its trade partners while reaffirming commitment to multilateral trade norms.

Experts say the aircraft issue is more than a technical dispute: it reflects deeper anxieties about trade competitiveness, jurisdiction over regulatory standards, and the politicisation of what have traditionally been independent safety processes.

If aircraft certification becomes entangled in trade retaliation, it could set a new precedent with implications far beyond North America.

Conclusion: What Comes Next?

As of now, Canada has not indicated immediate concessions, and no formal tariff action has yet been implemented. Bombardier’s talks with the Canadian government and continued regulatory discussions will be closely watched by industry and diplomatic observers.

Whether the threat of heavy tariffs and the suggestion of decertification translates into a negotiated outcome or hardens into longer-term economic conflict remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that a dispute rooted in aircraft certification has morphed into a significant diplomatic flashpoint.

The Logical Indian’s Perspective

Trade relations between long-standing democratic neighbours should be governed by respect for established norms, regulatory independence and dialogue – not unilateral threats that could undermine economic cooperation and shared prosperity.

While sovereign governments have the right to defend domestic industries, weaponising aviation safety mechanisms and tariffs risks destabilising the North American aerospace ecosystem and harming workers, travellers and businesses on both sides.