India’s monsoon has entered a crucial stretch with the country facing a 13% rainfall deficit, while two senior weather officials cited by Reuters now expect the June-September season to end roughly 15% below normal.
If that assessment holds, 2026 would record India’s weakest monsoon since 2009. The stakes extend well beyond the weather, with September rainfall crucial for crop yields, soil moisture and the rural economy.
Meanwhile, strengthening El Niño is raising concerns that the deficit could widen further before the monsoon season ends.
Rainfall Deficit Deepens In August
The monsoon’s trajectory has been uneven rather than uniformly weak.
June delivered a severe blow, with rainfall 35.4% below normal. July briefly reversed the trend with rainfall 1% above average, but the improvement did not hold. August rainfall was running 15% below normal through August 24, leaving cumulative seasonal rainfall 13% below the long-period average.
That timing is important for agriculture. The monsoon is not simply a four-month rainfall total. When rain arrives, where it falls and whether farmers receive sufficient moisture during key crop stages can matter as much as the national headline number.
The next major variable is September. Reuters reported that weather officials expect rainfall to remain below normal across much of the country, although some eastern states could be exceptions. IMD’s formal September outlook was still awaited as of August 26.
El Niño Raises The Stakes
The worsening outlook is closely linked to El Niño, the Pacific Ocean climate pattern that can disrupt rainfall patterns across the world.
For India, the concern is particularly significant because the Southwest Monsoon supplies about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. Reuters reported that El Niño is strengthening and is expected to intensify further, adding to the risk of a weak finish to the monsoon season.
IMD’s official forecast already reflected a cautious outlook. Its latest projection put seasonal rainfall at 90% of LPA, after an earlier forecast of 92%. The current 15% deficit expectation reported by Reuters would therefore represent a substantially weaker outcome than the official seasonal forecast.
Farmers Face The First Test
Agriculture is where the rainfall shortfall could translate into a direct economic impact.
Farmers had sown 101.7 million hectares of monsoon crops by August 14, about 2% less than the area covered a year earlier, according to Farm Ministry data reported by Business Standard.
A weak late-season monsoon could affect crops including cotton, soybean, corn and pulses, Reuters reported. The problem does not necessarily end with Kharif crops. Poor rainfall can leave less moisture in the soil for the following winter cropping season, potentially affecting crops such as wheat and rapeseed.
This is why the economic consequences of a weak monsoon can extend beyond farmers. Lower yields can tighten supplies of particular commodities, increasing pressure on food prices and potentially affecting household purchasing power.
Rural Economy In Focus
The monsoon also matters for the wider rural economy because agricultural income influences spending on consumer goods, farm equipment and other products.
Business Standard reported that the government sees the crop-sowing situation as having recovered significantly after July rainfall, even though the total area remained below last year’s level as of August 14.
That means the final crop outcome is not predetermined. A late improvement in rainfall could still reduce some of the damage, while another weak spell could deepen stress.
For businesses, the distinction between a 13% deficit today and a 15% deficit at the end of the season will therefore be important. The latter would imply that the monsoon failed to recover meaningfully during its final phase.
September Holds The Key
The immediate focus now is September rainfall and the next official IMD assessment.
If rainfall improves, some agricultural and water-related risks could ease. If the deficit widens and the season approaches the 15% shortfall reported by Reuters, India would be facing its weakest monsoon since 2009, with greater pressure on crop output, farm incomes and selected food prices.
For now, the most accurate reading is neither that India is already in a drought nor that a food-price shock is inevitable. The data show a significant monsoon deficit, a strengthening El Niño and a growing downside risk to the agricultural economy.
The September rainfall data will determine how much of that risk becomes reality.
Also Read: 31% Rainfall Deficit, 175 Taluks Affected: Karnataka Plans ₹27-Crore Cloud Seeding Drive
