Colombia’s coffee industry has largely escaped direct crop damage from the country’s powerful August earthquake. The bigger threat to its 2026 harvest is now the weather.
The National Federation of Coffee Growers expects production to fall about 8% to 12.5 million 60-kg bags, from 13.7 million bags in 2025, citing earlier heavy rains and the emergence of El Niño.
The forecast puts climate risk, rather than earthquake damage, at the centre of Colombia’s coffee outlook as global coffee supply is already facing shifting weather patterns.
El Niño Raises Production Risks
The production estimate comes from FNC general manager Germán Bahamón, who told Reuters that the earthquake itself had not significantly affected coffee production.
Instead, the federation expects output to decline because of heavy rainfall earlier in the year and the developing El Niño weather pattern. The distinction is important: the earthquake has caused serious damage to communities and infrastructure, but the crop itself has largely avoided major physical losses.
The weather outlook is becoming more concerning. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in its latest assessment that there is more than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27. It also put the probability of a historic-strength event during October-December at 69%.
El Niño changes rainfall and temperature patterns across regions, meaning its impact on agriculture varies by location and crop. For Colombian coffee, the FNC is already incorporating the developing weather pattern into its 2026 production outlook.
Earthquake’s Human Cost Remains
The August 10 earthquake, however, has created a significant disruption for coffee-growing communities.
The 7.4-magnitude quake affected an area containing around 10,500 coffee-growing families. Of those, about 8,000 reported damage to their homes or coffee-processing facilities, according to Reuters.
That means the immediate earthquake risk is less about destroyed coffee plants and more about the infrastructure surrounding production. Processing facilities, housing and transport links are essential to moving harvested coffee from farms into the export chain.
The FNC is preparing a reconstruction programme with government support and plans to buy harvested coffee from affected growers, according to Reuters. The measures are intended to help families whose livelihoods have been disrupted even though the coffee crop itself largely survived.
Exports Face A Separate Test
Logistics have also been under pressure, although the situation has improved.
Buenaventura, Colombia’s principal coffee export port, handles about 60% of the country’s coffee shipments. Reuters reported that exports were proceeding normally after temporary inspections and road closures following the earthquake.
That recovery is significant for the wider market. A production shortfall does not automatically translate into an immediate export shortage, because coffee already harvested, stored and moving through the supply chain can provide some cushion.
Still, any prolonged disruption to processing or transport could complicate Colombia’s ability to convert available coffee into exportable supplies.
Farmers Also Face Currency Pressure
Colombian coffee growers are dealing with another economic challenge: the peso.
Bahamón estimates that the appreciation of the Colombian currency is costing growers around 700,000 pesos, or approximately $229, per 125-kg load. That figure is the federation chief’s estimate and should not be interpreted as an independently verified industry-wide loss.
The issue reflects the economics of an export-oriented commodity. Colombian coffee is sold internationally, largely in dollars, while growers’ domestic expenses are paid in pesos. A stronger peso can therefore reduce the local-currency value of export earnings.
This creates additional pressure on farmer incomes at a time when production is already expected to weaken.
Forecasts Show Unusual Uncertainty
There is also a significant difference between Colombia’s latest domestic forecast and the earlier USDA outlook.
In its May 2026 Coffee Annual, the USDA forecast Colombian production at 13.4 million 60-kg bags for marketing year 2026/27, a 7.2% increase. That forecast covers October 2026 through September 2027 and therefore cannot be directly compared with the FNC’s 12.5 million-bag calendar-year 2026 estimate.
The divergence highlights how quickly weather conditions can change production expectations.
The broader market is already operating in a relatively tight environment. The International Coffee Organization reported global coffee exports of 106.16 million bags during October 2025-June 2026, down 0.4% from the comparable period a year earlier.
For Colombia, therefore, the immediate story is not that the earthquake destroyed its coffee harvest. It did not. The more consequential question is whether an increasingly intense El Niño, combined with earlier rainfall and currency pressure, will make the federation’s lower 2026 production forecast a reality.
For global coffee buyers, that uncertainty may matter almost as much as the final number.
