The United Nations Environment Programme released a new report on Monday, titled “Broken Record,” revealing alarming projections that the world is on track for a temperature rise of approximately 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. This dire forecast persists even if countries fully implement their nationally-determined contributions (NDCs) or action plans aimed at reducing emissions of planet-warming gases.
The report, released ahead of the 28th session of the annual UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai, emphasizes that countries must significantly enhance their emission reduction efforts. To limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, emissions need to be cut by 28 percent, and for the more ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, a 42 percent reduction is required.
Global emissions increased by 1.2 percent in 2021-2022, the report states. Even if countries fully implement their unconditional NDCs, the world is still expected to face a temperature rise of 2.9 degrees Celsius. Conditional NDCs, if fully implemented, could lead to temperatures not exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping the global average temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius and striving for a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
While acknowledging progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions since the Paris Agreement, the report underscores that the world remains far from achieving the crucial goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The impacts of climate change are already evident, with unprecedented heat, floods, wildfires, cyclones, and droughts occurring at just 1.1 degrees of global warming.
The report highlights the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels and calls for global efforts to deliver low-carbon development transformations, particularly focusing on energy transition. Extracting and using the planned coal, oil, and gas resources would surpass the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by more than three-and-a-half times.
Developed countries, having consumed over 80 percent of the global carbon budget, are urged to take more ambitious and rapid actions. Low- and middle-income countries, responsible for more than two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, are encouraged to prioritize clean energy supply chains and address energy demand patterns.
Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at the New Delhi-based Climate Action Network International, emphasized the critical situation, stating that projected emissions from fossil fuel extraction are on track to exceed the carbon budget needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by more than three-and-a-half times.
The UN Secretary-General, Antònio Guterres, stressed the need to eliminate the root cause of the climate crisis—fossil fuels—and called for a just and equitable transition to renewable energy.
As the world faces these challenges, COP28 in Dubai is expected to be a crucial platform for discussions and actions toward a sustainable and resilient future.
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