A groundbreaking study by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, predicts a 95% probability of global average surface temperatures hitting unprecedented highs in the upcoming winter of 2023-24. Their findings suggest that regions across the mid-low latitudes of Eurasia and most parts of the Americas are likely to witness exceptionally warm winter conditions.
The key factor driving these projections is the imminent maturation of a moderate to strong Eastern Pacific El Nino during the upcoming northern hemisphere winter. This robust El Nino event is expected to induce anomalous anticyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific, influencing the winter climates of East Asia and North America, as revealed in their study published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
Of particular concern is the anticipation of surface temperatures in China surging to more than double the usual levels, potentially surpassing the highest winter temperature record since 1991. Scientists underscored the need to address growing apprehensions about whether the approaching winter of 2023 will mark the warmest in recent memory, especially considering the scorching heatwaves experienced during the summer and autumn months.
These months, characterized by extreme temperatures and a consistent global warming trend across oceans and landmasses, saw the global average temperature from June to October 2023 surpass the 1991-2020 average by 0.57 degrees Celsius. August and September recorded even higher temperatures, exceeding historical averages by 0.62 and 0.69 degrees Celsius, respectively, and surpassing the records set in 2016.
Against the backdrop of ongoing global warming, the resurgence of the El Nino phenomenon after seven years has added fuel to the heat, generating widespread interest in the anticipated winter trends for 2023-24.
In conclusion, the scientific community emphasizes the need for vigilance and preparation as we approach a winter that may shatter existing temperature records, urging governments and communities to take proactive measures to mitigate potential challenges posed by these unprecedented climatic conditions.
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