For the second consecutive year, India is projected to witness the most significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions among major economies, according to the annual study by the Global Carbon Project. The study, unveiled during the annual climate change conference, sounds a stark warning about the possibility of breaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold within the next seven years if current emission trends persist.
The study highlights a concerning trend, indicating that daily or weekly breaches of the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit are already occurring, with at least one annual breach expected in the next five years. Carbon dioxide, a prominent greenhouse gas, is just one of the six contributors to global warming.
India’s anticipated 8.2% rise in annual CO2 emissions for 2023 surpasses the expected 4% increase in China, marking the second successive year of substantial growth. While China’s emissions are about four times that of India, the absolute increase in China’s emissions in 2023 is expected to exceed that of India.
The primary driver of India’s emissions surge is attributed to the soaring demand for power, outpacing the growth of new renewable capacity. Alarmingly, the study confirms that India’s CO2 emissions have surpassed those of the European Union since 2022.
China’s growth, the study notes, is influenced in part by a delayed rebound from significant Covid-19 lockdowns.
India’s CO2 emissions are projected to climb by 233 million tonnes compared to the previous year, with coal-fired power plants contributing a substantial 176 million tonnes to this increase.
On a global scale, CO2 emissions are estimated to reach a new record of 36.8 billion tonnes, reflecting a 1.1% increase from the previous year. The study predicts a rise in emissions from all fossil fuels, with oil leading the surge at 1.5%. However, emissions are expected to decline in 26 countries, accounting for approximately 28% of global emissions—a notable shift from the 22 countries that reported declines last year.
The study warns that if current emission levels persist, the carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could be exceeded within seven years. Additionally, there is a risk of breaching the 1.7 degrees Celsius threshold within 15 years. Reducing global temperatures below these thresholds post-breaching would necessitate a substantial increase in carbon dioxide removal after achieving global net-zero emissions.
As the global community grapples with escalating carbon emissions, urgent and collective efforts are imperative to avert the potentially irreversible consequences of climate change. The findings underscore the critical need for accelerated transitions to sustainable energy sources and heightened global cooperation to mitigate the impending environmental challenges.
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