Tamil Nadu Health Minister K G Arunraj has flagged the State’s sharply declining fertility rate, saying it has fallen to 1.4 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
Speaking at World Population Day events in Chennai on July 11, Arunraj said the State is ageing rapidly and that population growth should no longer be viewed as a burden. His comments come weeks after VCK MP D Ravikumar urged the government to consider incentives for families having a third child, citing NFHS-6 data that put Tamil Nadu’s fertility rate at 1.7.
While some States such as Andhra Pradesh are considering incentives for larger families, Arunraj said Tamil Nadu’s immediate priority would remain improving maternal and infant health rather than encouraging births.
Tamil Nadu’s Fertility Rate Falls
Arunraj said Tamil Nadu’s fertility rate has fallen from around 3.9 children per woman in 1971 to 1.3 today, after the State reached the replacement level during the 1990s.
He noted that nearly 16% of Tamil Nadu’s population is now aged above 60, a share projected to rise to 20.8% by 2036. At the same time, the proportion of children aged 0–14 is expected to decline from 18.3% in 2026 to 15.6% by 2036.
“Population is no longer looked upon as a burden. People are considered resources,” Arunraj said, stressing that the State’s focus should be on people’s health and quality of life.
The State Health Minister also pointed to Tamil Nadu’s infant mortality rate of 11 and maternal mortality ratio of 25.
Health Secretary Darez Ahmed said higher-order births, meaning births after a woman has already had two children, account for only 6% of births in the State but are linked to 30% of maternal deaths.
Speaker J C D Prabhakaran, meanwhile, said men should share equal responsibility for household work and parenting. These comments underline that any discussion about encouraging larger families also needs to consider maternal health, childcare and the responsibilities placed on parents.
Calls For Incentives
The debate gained momentum in June when VCK general secretary and Villupuram MP D Ravikumar wrote to Arunraj seeking measures to address Tamil Nadu’s declining fertility. Citing NFHS-6 data for 2023–24, Ravikumar said the State’s total fertility rate was 1.7, compared with the national average of 2.0 and the replacement level of 2.1.
He urged the government to consider incentives for families choosing to have a third child and raised concerns about Tamil Nadu’s high sterilisation rate.
The issue also has wider demographic implications. Tamil Nadu’s slower population growth is expected to coincide with a shrinking working-age population and a larger elderly population, potentially increasing pressure on healthcare and social support systems.
Ravikumar has additionally linked the demographic trend to concerns over future delimitation and political representation. However, Arunraj’s July remarks indicate that the State government is currently approaching the issue primarily through healthcare, longevity and quality of life rather than a direct push for larger families.
The Logical Indian’s Perspective
A falling fertility rate is not simply a numbers problem. Decisions about whether and when to have children are deeply personal and shaped by housing costs, education, childcare, employment, healthcare and the desire to balance family life with individual aspirations.
Any policy response should therefore empower people rather than make them feel pressured to have more children.
If Tamil Nadu chooses to explore incentives, they should be accompanied by stronger maternal healthcare, affordable childcare, quality public education and genuine support for parents, while respecting reproductive choice.
At the same time, an ageing population calls for planning that values older citizens rather than treating them as a burden. Should governments focus on encouraging larger families, or on creating conditions where people who want children feel genuinely supported in making that choice?
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