India is among 15 high-risk countries where relaxing lockdowns could lead to an increase in fresh infections, which ‘in the extreme case’, could result in strict curbs being re-imposed, securities research firm Nomura said.
The research took 45 major economies into account and said that the case trajectories and mobility trends to analyse the impact of movement of people on new cases.
‘Our visual tool has yielded a mixed bag of results: 17 countries are on track with respect to reopening economies with no sign of second wave; 13 countries showing some tentative warning signs; and 15 countries in danger zone of being most at risk of a second wave’ the report said.
It said that lifting lockdowns will result in either of two potential scenarios. ‘In the first (good) scenario, a country experiences a quick recovery in people mobility. Lockdown measures become relaxed, and businesses resume operations with minimal increases in the number of new daily cases, resulting in an ease in public fear and further increase in people mobility. As the number of new cases declines, a positive feed-back loops kicks in,’ the analysis said.
‘On the other hand, the second (bad) scenario is characterised by a much ‘flatter’ curve. The reopening of the economy is associated with an acceleration in the number of new daily infections, growing public fear and ceasing people mobility; in extreme cases, lockdowns would be reimposed,’ the report added.
The analysis categorizes 45 countries into three groups: those ‘on track’, facing ‘warning signs’, or are in the ‘danger zone’.
As per the analysis, India is in the danger zone, along with other low-to-middle income countries such as Indonesia, Chile and Pakistan. Some of the advanced economies in this group are Sweden, Singapore, South Africa and Canada.
Those on track include France, Italy, South Korea, while countries like Germany, United States and United Kingdom are at risk.
The anaylsis comes at a time when most countries are lifting restrictions to permit people resume work. The World Health Organization has time and again urged countries to take efforts to curb the spread of the virus. ‘This is not the time for any country to take its foot off the pedal,’ the WHO said.
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