Special COVID-19 envoy of the World Health Organization, David Nabarro on May 8, said that India will witness a spike in COVID-19 cases around July-end but will soon attain stability. When the lockdown lifts, there will definitely be more cases, but people should not be scared, he said.
In an interview with NDTV, Nabarro said that though the cases in India are large, they are relatively at moderate stages, taking country’s population into account.
The health expert said that the country has reported a small number of cases comparatively, by imposing timely restrictions, and got the situation under control in most settings.
‘It is difficult to control such an outbreak in a dense set-up. You are certainly slowing down the numbers. Your doubling rate is 11 days,’ he added.
The health expert, who is also a professor of global health at Imperial College London, warned that there will be ‘sporadic outbreaks’ as soon as the lockdown ends, but will soon flatten the curve. ‘Thereon, the outbreaks will be contained. Around July-end, there will be a flat peak but it will get better.’
Referring to the lockdown imposed in the country, Nabarro said that India managed to keep the virus reasonably to specific places (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Tamil Nadu) due to imposition of such quick actions.
Talking about the mortality rate, Nabarro stated the coronavirus cases are higher in the countries with larger populations of old age groups, and since India has a reverse age structure, the number of deaths in the country is comparatively less.
Earlier this week, director of the All Indian Institute Of Medical Sciences, Randeep Guleria also hinted about cases likely to peak in June-July, according to the data released by experts and observing the current situation, adding that exact prediction is still not possible.
