With 498 individuals having been tested positive for the novel coronavirus and nine death cases reported as of March 24, 2020, India, that shelters a population of 1.3 billion people is grappling hard to contain the spread of the disease which can turn out to be a great catastrophe in the coming months.
The country is under lockdown, after the 14-hour episode of ‘Janata Curfew’ which was to propagate the idea of social distancing, of breaking the chain, but a continuous spike in the number of COVID-19 cases is a reason to worry.
Epidemiologist Girdhar R. Babu, in an interview with The Print, opined that after the revision of the coronavirus testing strategies, efficient quarantine and isolation measures needs to be followed up.
Babu, a professor and head of life-course epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India, said that if followed strictly, the measures could end up saving up to 10,000 lives.
However, if things do not change, with an exponential model of cases doubling every six days, India will have 600,000 cases by the end of May, Babu, told the publication.
The expert also praised PM Modi’s self-imposed curfew and termed it an ‘excellent move’ that would help flatten the coronavirus curve in a country that’s densely populated.
Having worked closely with the Karnataka state health department, the Union health ministry and World Health Organisation, Babu on account on his experience, strongly suggests that an absence of evidence should not be confused with absence of infection.
‘India definitely has missed detecting local transmission in some of the large states,’ he said.
Reiterating to the lack of testing facilities, he said to trace transmission, India needs to look around diagnosed and missed cases.
‘Before the travel restrictions were imposed and even afterwards, there are many who might have been tested negative (in incubation period) or missed by the system,’ he said, adding that they should be tracked and every symptomatic patient should be tested.
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