COVID-19 Outbreak: How Is India Faring Compared To The World?

As of April 9, 2020, there are 5,916 (up by 565) confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India. The number of active cases is 5,172. The number of recovered patients stands at 565. The deadly virus has claimed 179 lives.

Confirmed Cases

In an outbreak of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, it is important to not only study the number of confirmed cases of the infection, but also the growth rate at which the number of these cases is increasing.

Since the nature of growth is exponential, there is a possibility that even if a country has few cases now, they could increase rapidly.

India: How Quickly Did The Cases Double?

According to the data available, in some countries such as China and Korea which have substantial countermeasures in place, the new daily confirmed cases have declined.

However, other countries do not have comparable measures in place, and hence, numbers are quickly rising.

Data Source: European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Up to date for 10 AM (CET) on April 7.

The total confirmed cases and daily new confirmed cases are shown in absolute numbers and adjusted for population size by showing total and new confirmed cases per million people.

It must also be noted that the data shows the date of reporting, not necessarily the confirmed case figures on that given day.

These graphs compares the total number of confirmed cases in India with the rest of the world.

Growth Rate Of Cases

Since the COVID-19 outbreak started in different countries at different times, those countries are at different stages.

The graph reveals the pace at which the number of cases in each country has grown since the 100th confirmed case.

The straight grey lines show the trajectory for a doubling time of 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and 10 days.

If a country's line on the chart is higher than those lines, then its number of cases is doubling faster than that.

The pathway of China shows that the speed at which cases rise is not necessarily constant over time. Both countries saw a rapid initial rise but then implemented severe countermeasures, and the pathway became flatter, meaning that the spread of the disease has slowed down.

The trajectory of confirmed cases is adjusted for the population size – presented as the number of confirmed cases per million people. This is shown from the day that a given country reached 1 confirmed case per million people. This chart shows the trajectory for cases per million.

India's Curve: Bending?

This graph focusses on the daily number of cases. This trajectory chart shows whether countries achieve to bring down the curve of new cases.

It is noteworthy to mention here that this is based on the number of confirmed cases rather than the total number of cases and that levels and changes to the reported number of cases can be due to limited testing.

Confirmed Cases Vs Deaths

The following graphs compare cases and deaths reported in India. First, the total number is shown followed by the daily figures.

Source Of Data

All the information and graphs in the article have been sourced from Our World In Data, a scientific online publication that focuses on large global problems such as poverty, disease, hunger, climate change, war, existential risks, and inequality.

The report has taken all its data European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

The European CDC publishes daily statistics on the COVID-19 pandemic for the entire world apart from Europe.

It must be noted that reported new cases on a particular day do not necessarily represent new cases on that day.

For a case to be reported a series of steps are followed. This reporting chain can take several days.

First, the doctor or laboratory submits the report to the health department of the city or local district. The Health department then receives the report and records each individual case in the reporting system, including patient information.

The ministry or another governmental organization brings this data together and publishes the latest figures. International data bodies such as the WHO or the ECDC can then collate statistics from hundreds of such national accounts.

Therefore, figures reported on any given date do not necessarily reflect the number of new cases or deaths on that specific day

Also Read: Coronavirus Outburst: What Is PM CARES Fund? What Financial Challenges Lie Ahead?