India’s real GDP grew by 8.2 per cent in the second quarter (July-September) of FY 2025-26, marking a six-quarter high and surpassing economist estimates of 7-7.5 per cent.

This robust expansion, from Rs 44.94 lakh crore to Rs 48.63 lakh crore, positions India as the world’s fastest-growing major economy despite US tariffs rising to 50 per cent and foreign investor outflows of $16 billion.

The National Statistical Office released the data, crediting strong domestic demand, agriculture, and government spending, while RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra projected full-year growth at 6.8 per cent amid balanced risks.​

Growth Drivers Amid Challenges

The surge follows a low 5.6 per cent growth in Q2 FY25 and builds on 7.8 per cent in Q1 FY26, driven by rural spending from good monsoons, GST rationalisation boosting consumer demand (up 7.9 per cent), and pre-tariff export front-loading.

Despite urban consumption and private investments lagging, public expenditure sustained momentum. US President Donald Trump’s August tariff hikes triggered equity outflows, yet India’s resilience highlights domestic strengths over global headwinds like geopolitical tensions.​

Sectoral Breakdown and Projections

Gross Value Added (GVA) rose 7.15 per cent, with manufacturing, services, and agriculture leading. Private consumption (57 per cent of GDP) grew 7.9 per cent from 7 per cent prior, though government spending contracted 2 per cent from 7.4 per cent.

RBI’s October outlook noted, “Real GDP growth for 2025-26 is now projected at 6.8 per cent,” citing monsoon benefits, GST easing, and reforms offsetting trade risks. Analysts warn of moderation to 6.4-6.2 per cent in later quarters due to base effects and low inflation impacting nominal growth.​

The Logical Indian’s Perspective

India’s impressive GDP growth signals economic vitality, yet true progress lies in equitable distribution reaching rural and urban poor alike. The Logical Indian champions inclusive policies that channel this momentum into job creation, skill development, and reduced inequalities for harmonious prosperity.