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Fact Check: Did US Economy Perform Worse Than India In April-June Quarter?
Writer: Aditi Chattopadhyay
Aditi, part of the fact checking team of The Logical Indian likes to read, write, cook and laugh, in short live life as it is supposed to be. What makes her fascinated is to discover the truth behind a story and more often than not, it is either fact or myth at the end.
India, 5 Sep 2020 11:08 AM GMT
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The Logical Indian Fact check team investigates the claim that US, Canadian and the Japanese economy have contracted more than the Indian economy.
India reported the worst quarterly contraction on record, with 23.9 per cent fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June quarter (Q1), as per provisional estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Monday (31 August, 2020).
The country has officially entered a phase of recession. According to the media reports, the contraction is also the worst among G20 nations. Prior to this, the UK had reported the biggest slump in GDP among the world's top 20 economies with a 21.7% fall in the June quarter, its deepest contraction on record.
In light of this, viral social media posts claim that the US, Canadian and the Japanese economy have contracted more than the Indian economy.
S Gurumurthy, a political economy commentator and a director with the Reserve Bank of India tweeted that the United States witnessed a drop of 33 percent, Japan as 27.8 percent. However, he later issued a correction.
Surprised at how media is reporting on Q2 GDP. "Worst crash" "Economy in ICU" Fact is nation stopped working. So no production, no income, no spend. Only if nation works but doesn't earn it is fall. It hasn't worked at all. It is like cut in pay for not working. Illiterate media
— S Gurumurthy (@sgurumurthy) September 1, 2020
#GDPTruth
— ProNaMo (@ProNaMoSeva) September 2, 2020
GDP contraction worldwide in Q1
•Canada -38.7%
•USA -32.9 %
•Japan -27.8%
•India -23.9%
•UK -20.4%
Good News on Indian Economy. Car Sales up by 20% YoY for August..
This is Huge..
Forget 23% contraction , that was first Quarter. This is Latest news
India Today, aired an infographic that showed US' economy falling by 32.9 percent and India by 23.9 percent, in its broadcast.
Postcard News, known for spreading fake information also shared an infographic that claimed that the economy of US contracted by 32.9 percent.
World data of cut in GDP: US -33%,
— Vipul (@imvipul18) September 1, 2020
UK -21%,
Singapore -42.9%,
Japan -27.8%,
France -14%
Canada -38.7%
Singapore -42.9%
Sabke liye @BJP4India @RSSorg @narendramodi jimmedar hai🤦World data of cut in GDP: US -33%,
— Shubham Yadav (@Shubham54838448) September 1, 2020
UK -21%,
Singapore -42.9%,
Japan -27.8%,
France -14%
Canada -38.7%
Singapore -42.9%
Sabke liye @BJP4India @RSSorg @narendramodi jimmedar hai🤦@priyankagandhi
#GDPTruth
— Sharath_24699 (@S24699) September 2, 2020
Most of this quarter was during lockdown,there was no income how can u expect good gdp
World data of cut in GDP
US -33%,
UK -21%,
Singapore -42.9%
Japan -27.8%,
France -14%
Canada 38.7%
Not only india,entire world is facing financial crisis
The Logical Indian received a request to verify the claims.
Claim:
US, Canadian and the Japanese economy have contracted more than the Indian economy.
Fact Check:
The claim is false. The confusion seems to be because of different ways of calculation of GDP growth/contraction in US and India. In US, the comparison is done on quarter-on-quarter basis which is then annualised, while in India it is done on a year-on-year basis.
What Is Annualisation?
This is a technique in statistics of taking a figure covering a period of less than one year and extrapolating it to cover a full one year period. This is usually done for ease of comparison of figures.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), "publishes percent changes in most quarterly estimates at annual rates". Further, a quarterly percent change is added "at an annual rate shows what the percent change would be if the quarterly rate continued for four quarters. It is computed by compounding the quarterly rate for four quarters."
The formula used for this can be accessed here.
According to BEA, the US economy contracted by 9.1 percent in the April-June quarter in comparison to January-March quarter.
Now, if the same figure is annualised, as explained above, then as per the BEA report, the gross domestic product of the US contracted at an annualised rate of 31.7 percent in the same quarter of 2020.
How GDP Is Calculated In India?
In India, the comparison is done on a year-on-year basis. Therefore, when it was said that India's GDP dropped by 23.9 percent in the April-June quarter in 2020, it indicated that this contraction is in comparison to April-June 2019.
In India, a quarter-on-quarter comparison is not done, unlike the US. Therefore, if the GDP of India has to be compared with the US numbers, then the 23.9 percent figure must be compared with 9.1 percent not to the annualised percentage.
Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist of the Indian Monetary Fund (IMF) tweeted non-annualised quarter-on-quarter growth numbers for the economies. This data, showed that India witnessed a drop of 25.6 percent.
In #GreatLockdown Q2 2020 GDP growth at historical lows. Graph puts G20 growth numbers on a comparable scale, quarter-on-quarter non-annualized. Should expect rebounds in Q3 but 2020 overall will see major contractions. China recovers strongly in Q2 after collapse in Q1. pic.twitter.com/OcgaZsrAD6
— Gita Gopinath (@GitaGopinath) September 2, 2020
An article by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Gautam Chikermane, the organisation's Vice President, while comparing the world figures, compares India's 23.9 percent drop with US' 9.5 percent contraction. It is noteworthy to mention that the report refers to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data, which is why the figure is 9.5 and not 9.1.
Therefore, viral posts mistakenly compared the annual rate of shrinking of US GDP with the year-on-year drop in GDP (India).
If you have any news that you believe needs to be fact-checked, please email us at factcheck@thelogicalindian.com or WhatsApp at 6364000343
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