India's projection for the future is significant as it plans to meet 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030. Challenging the efforts, the scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has revealed through their analysis that climate change is a big concern in India's ambition to push solar and wind energy. This could damage India's effort to meet energy requirements through renewable energy.
Soon, the Indian landmass will witness a sharp decline in solar potential. It is estimated that the solar radiation will decrease by 10-15 Wm-2 during all the calendar years season for over the next 50 years, reported News18.
For instance, cloud cover in major parts would reduce the solar radiation frequency. Many such factors affecting solar power production can play due to climate change. The north-western part of India showed a massive fall in solar radiation production throughout the year. States such as Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and the Union Territory of Ladakh still indicate a strong projection for solar radiation.
India's Future Prediction
In November 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while speaking at COP26 Glasgow, pledged to push the country's renewable energy capacity to 500 GW, out of which nearly 300 GW will be generated from renewable energy projects.
Today, India ranks 4th in the world in installed renewable energy capacity. India's non-fossil fuel energy has increased by more than 25 per cent in the last seven years, and now it has reached 40 per cent of our energy mix, the PM added.
The scientists at IITM, Pune believe that southern and central parts of the country can be a top-notch spot for investment in the future in the lines of solar energy.
Senior scientist at IITM Pune, Dr. P Mukhopadhyay, said "The aim of the study was not to raise the alarm but to make the stakeholders aware that climate change is indeed expected to impact future renewable energy production. So, it is paramount that climate factor is taken into account while planning their strategy and investment," reported News18.
The country receives a majority of the wind energy through the southwest monsoon. The team of scientists revealed that there could be a decrease in wind energy production due to seasonal variations.
Validity Of Predictions By Scientists
The scientists who conducted the renewable energy analysis include Deepak Gopalakrishnan, TS Anandh, and others. During the study, regional and global climate models were considered (six- CORDEX-SA, 13 CMIP5, and 13 CMIP6 models). It was done to inspect the past 50 years' trends in renewable energy sources and to estimate their availability in the future.
"These projections are emerging not just from one or two models, but an ensemble of global climate models assessed as part of IPCC," said a survey team member.
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