Asia is rapidly filling a diesel supply gap in Africa as disruptions to Middle Eastern shipments push buyers towards alternative suppliers.
Asian diesel exports to Africa are expected to reach 1.8 million to 2 million tonnes in August, a roughly 4.5-year high, while Middle Eastern shipments are forecast at just 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes, their lowest level in almost nine years, according to shipping data cited by Reuters.
Middle East Loses African Market
The shift is significant because the Middle East has traditionally been a major source of diesel for African markets. Kpler data cited by Reuters shows that about half of Africa’s diesel imports came from the Middle East in 2025. Saudi Arabia accounted for roughly 40% of those Middle Eastern supplies.
That supply chain has been disrupted by the conflict involving the United States and Iran, shipping risks around the region and restrictions affecting traffic through key waterways. The resulting reduction in Middle Eastern availability has forced African buyers to look further afield for diesel cargoes.
Saudi Arabia’s reduced shipments illustrate the scale of the change. Diesel exports from Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery to Africa fell to zero in August, from 163,000 tonnes in July, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
Asian Refiners Fill Supply Gap
The decline in Middle Eastern shipments has coincided with stronger exports from Asian refiners. The August Asian-to-Africa volume of 1.8 million to 2 million tonnes is equivalent to approximately 13.4 million to 14.9 million barrels of diesel.
India is one of the important suppliers within the broader Asian export market, although the available data does not establish India’s precise share of the August Africa-bound cargoes. That distinction is important because the Reuters estimate covers Asia as a whole, rather than India alone.
India’s overall refined-fuel exports nevertheless show how strongly its refineries have responded to international market conditions. Kpler data reported by ET EnergyWorld put India’s refined petroleum-product exports at 1.526 million bpd in July, 27% above the preceding 12-month average.
A separate Reuters analysis using Kpler data estimated India’s July exports of light and middle distillates at 1.55 million bpd, the second-highest level in Kpler’s records dating to 2017.
Refining Margins Encourage Exports
Economics are helping sustain the shift. Asian diesel refining margins averaged $66 a barrel in August, up from $61 a barrel in July, giving refiners an incentive to maintain or increase production for export markets.
The change is also visible in regional pricing. Singapore’s diesel cash premium declined to around $4 a barrel, a one-month low, as additional barrels entered the market.
The east-west price spread also became more favourable for moving Asian diesel towards western markets, supporting the economics of longer-distance shipments to destinations including Africa. Reuters reported the spread at minus $135 per tonne in August, compared with minus $100 per tonne in July.
China is also adding export capacity. Its August programme for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel was estimated at 3.6 million to 3.7 million tonnes, above planned July exports of 2.5 million tonnes, according to trade sources cited by Reuters.
Shipping Risks Reshape Trade
The disruption is not simply a refinery-capacity story. Shipping conditions around the Middle East have become an important factor in determining where refined products can move.
Reuters has reported that the effective disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic has altered crude and refined-product flows across Asia, while producers and refiners have sought alternative routes and markets.
For Africa, the immediate consequence is a more diversified supply map. Middle Eastern diesel has become less available just as Asian refiners have stronger economic incentives to export. That combination has allowed Asian cargoes to replace part of the lost supply.
Africa Faces New Supply Map
The August numbers show how quickly geopolitical disruptions can redirect refined-fuel trade. Asian diesel exports to Africa are now more than twice the estimated Middle Eastern volume at the upper end of the respective ranges.
Whether that shift persists will depend on shipping conditions, refinery availability and fuel margins. Reuters reported that analysts expect Asian supplies to remain important while risks to Middle Eastern shipping continue.
For now, the trade data points to a clear change in the market: Africa is buying more diesel from Asia at precisely the moment Middle Eastern supplies have fallen sharply, creating a major re-routing of global refined-fuel flows.
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