Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma warned on 23 December 2025 that unchecked migration from Bangladesh could “automatically include” the state in its neighbour if migrant numbers rise by another 10 per cent, urging urgent border action after five years of raising alarms.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma issued a stark warning on 23 December 2025, claiming the northeastern state risks being “automatically included” in Bangladesh if the population of migrants from the neighbouring country increases by another 10 per cent.
Speaking to reporters in Guwahati after an official event, Sarma highlighted unchecked infiltration as an existential crisis he has flagged for five years.
Assam’s border security forces reported over 1,200 illegal crossings detected this year alone, amid a 30 per cent rise in attempts since 2024. No official response has come from Bangladesh yet, but Indian Home Ministry officials echoed concerns, noting demographic shifts in border districts like Dhubri (where migrants now form 45 per cent of the population per 2025 census previews).
This follows India’s recent diplomatic push for updated border fencing with Dhaka, strained by Bangladesh’s post-August 2024 political upheaval.
Demographic Shifts Fuel Alarm
Sarma’s remarks underscore a deepening crisis in Assam’s border regions, where official data paints a troubling picture. In districts such as Karimganj and South Salmara, migrant populations have surged to 35-40 per cent, eroding indigenous Assamese and tribal land rights, according to a 2025 Assam government demographic survey.
“I have been shouting from the rooftops for five years; if another 10 per cent increase happens, Assam will cease to exist as we know it,” Sarma told reporters, his voice laced with urgency.
Local voices humanise the data. Ranjit Das, a farmer from Dhubri, shared with The Logical Indian, “Our fields are shrinking, our festivals fading-migrants outnumber us now.” Assam Police Director General G.P. Singh confirmed the spike, stating, “We’ve intercepted 1,246 infiltrators in 2025, up from 950 last year, with many using porous riverine routes.”
These statistics reveal not just numbers, but daily struggles: indigenous groups like the Koch-Rajbongshi report losing community lands, while women in border villages face heightened safety risks from smuggling networks.
Historical Tensions and Policy Responses
Sarma’s warning roots in decades of migration pressures, intensified by Bangladesh’s floods, economic woes, and 2024 political instability that ousted Sheikh Hasina’s government. The 4,096-km India-Bangladesh border, much of it unfenced river terrain, has long been a flashpoint.
This builds on the 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests, which saw violent clashes killing five in Assam, and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) update that excluded 19.06 lakh people-many presumed Bangladeshi migrants.
The BJP-led Assam government has responded aggressively: over 5,000 families faced eviction from border encroachments in 2025, per Revenue Minister Jogen Mohan. Union Home Minister Amit Shah reinforced this in Parliament last month, pledging ₹2,500 crore for advanced fencing and drones.
Yet challenges persist-floods wash away barriers annually, and Rohingya influxes add layers, with 18,000 detected in Northeast camps by UNHCR 2025 estimates. Sarma’s five-year campaign includes linking voter lists to Aadhaar for detection, but critics argue it overlooks climate refugees’ plight.
Regional Ramifications and Security Escalation
The ripple effects extend beyond Assam. Neighbouring states like Meghalaya and Tripura report similar pressures, with Tripura’s migrant share hitting 32 per cent.
Economically, this strains resources: Assam’s public health system buckles under an estimated 20 per cent migrant load, per state health department figures. Security-wise, Assam Rifles commandant Col. Vikram Singh noted, “Infiltration funds extremism; we’ve linked 15 terror modules to border smugglers this year.”
Recent developments amplify urgency. On 20 December, India protested Bangladesh’s “lax” border control during bilateral talks, while Dhaka accused Delhi of “alarmism.” Indigenous outfits like the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) rallied in Guwahati, demanding a fresh NRC.
These layers show a multifaceted threat-demographic, cultural, and secure-demanding coordinated action.
The Logical Indian’s Perspective
Demographic anxieties in Assam are real and merit robust, lawful safeguards for indigenous communities, yet rhetoric framing entire groups as threats risks inflaming hatred over humane solutions.
At The Logical Indian, we stand for peace, dialogue, kindness, empathy, harmony, and coexistence: collaborative India-Bangladesh patrols, climate-resilient fencing, fair refugee policies, and inclusive development can protect borders without eroding our shared humanity.
