In June, the U.S. and Iran had something that had seemed almost impossible only weeks earlier: a signed framework to stop their war.
The agreement promised an immediate halt to hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and 60 days to negotiate the hardest disputes.
By September 1, U.S. forces had struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island, Iran had fired missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan and only about five vessels were crossing Hormuz each day. The peace deal did not disappear overnight. Its unresolved terms slowly became the source of the next confrontation.
From Ceasefire To Breakthrough
The war began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. A ceasefire took effect in early April, but it remained fragile, with the two sides continuing to trade accusations and occasional fire. In May, Washington and Tehran were already struggling over the terms of a longer truce, particularly sanctions, Iran’s nuclear programme and access through Hormuz.
The diplomatic opening finally widened in June. On June 15, the two sides announced a preliminary framework to end the war. It was more than a pause in fighting: the plan linked the ceasefire to reopening Hormuz and created a 60-day window for negotiations on the issues that could not immediately be resolved.
The subsequent 14-point memorandum gave that framework more substance. Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian digitally signed it, according to officials from both countries. It called for an immediate end to military operations and a broader negotiation towards a final agreement.
The Deal Left Too Much Unresolved
The apparent breakthrough contained a fundamental weakness: the hardest questions were postponed.
The memorandum envisaged U.S. waivers for Iranian crude, petrochemical and related exports, progress towards releasing Iranian frozen assets and a minimum $300 billion reconstruction and economic-development plan. But the final arrangements governing Iran’s nuclear programme and the longer-term removal of sanctions still had to be negotiated.
That meant the ceasefire depended on two governments implementing concessions while still disagreeing about what those concessions actually meant.
Hormuz became the clearest example.
The memorandum said Iran would use its best efforts to facilitate safe commercial passage without charge for 60 days, while technical and military obstacles and de-mining were addressed. Iran was also to discuss the waterway’s future administration with Oman and other Gulf states.
But Washington and Tehran interpreted that language differently. Reuters reported that Iran saw it as recognition of its role in managing the waterway, while the U.S. and Gulf states saw it as an obligation to facilitate shipping without using force to restrict it.
July Turned Friction Into Conflict
That disagreement became impossible to contain.
On July 8, Trump declared the interim agreement “over” as Washington and Tehran exchanged strikes. The U.S. military subsequently said its operations were aimed at keeping Hormuz open. Iran disputed Washington’s account of the agreement and accused the U.S. of violating its commitments.
The diplomatic window did not close completely. But neither did the economic confrontation.
By August 12, Iran said there had been no progress towards reviving the June arrangement. Tehran argued that there was effectively nothing to extend because, in its view, Washington had violated the agreement almost immediately. Trump, meanwhile, claimed the United States had “total control” over Hormuz.
That gap between the two narratives mattered because Hormuz was no longer simply a diplomatic clause. It had become leverage.
Hormuz Kept Markets On Edge
The economic consequences were visible even without a return to February-style bombing.
Hormuz had carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows before the war. By late August, Iran and Oman were still negotiating arrangements for a temporary shipping corridor, while Qatar was separately trying to revive diplomacy.
The latest shipping data shows why the issue remains unresolved. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed about five vessels crossing Hormuz on Monday, well below the 10-day average of roughly 14. Crucially, none was a liquid tanker, although the count excludes vessels whose transponders were switched off.
For India and other major Asian energy importers, that matters beyond geopolitics. A waterway that cannot reliably handle crude and LNG tankers remains a supply and freight risk even when the guns are silent.
August Ended The Respite
Diplomatic efforts continued into the final week of August. Qatar’s prime minister travelled to Tehran on August 27 in an attempt to revive stalled diplomacy, while Iran and Oman were still working on the mechanics of Hormuz shipping.
However, U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island, according to a U.S. official, saying the systems were involved in preparations to launch mines into the Strait. Iran subsequently launched missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan, according to Reuters.
It was the first direct exchange of attacks between the two sides in about a month.
By September 1, Trump was threatening further strikes. Iran, however, continued to signal that it did not want a return to full-scale war while warning it would respond to further attacks. The result is a conflict that has moved from open warfare to sanctions and maritime pressure, and now back towards direct military confrontation.
The June agreement failed not because diplomacy achieved nothing, but because it stopped short of settling the questions that mattered most. The ceasefire bought time.
It did not settle who would give what, when, or under whose interpretation. In the end, the Strait of Hormuz became the place where those unresolved questions turned back into conflict.
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