The odds of 2026 becoming the hottest year ever recorded have jumped from 12% in July to 69% in August, according to Berkeley Earth.
The sharp change comes as a rapidly strengthening El Nino raises global temperatures and increases the likelihood of unusual weather patterns through the end of the year.
The development could have implications well beyond climate records, particularly for agriculture, food supply and economies exposed to rainfall and temperature swings.
El Niño Strengthens Rapidly
El Nino is a natural climate pattern involving unusually warm waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Its influence extends well beyond the Pacific because it alters atmospheric circulation and can shift rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world.
The latest US forecast points to an unusually strong event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is now a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.
It also puts the probability at 69% that conditions during October-December will reach an exceptional threshold, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Nino Index of at least +2.5°C. Such a reading could make the event stronger than any El Niño in NOAA’s record dating back to 1950.
That 69% probability should not be confused with Berkeley Earth’s separate 69% estimate for 2026 becoming the hottest year on record. They measure different outcomes.
Climate Baseline Remains High
El Nino can temporarily push global temperatures higher, but it is not the underlying cause of long-term global warming.
WMO confirmed 2024 as the warmest year in its observational record, with global average temperature 1.55°C ± 0.13°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
In January 2026, WMO confirmed that 2025 was also among the three warmest years on record. Its consolidated analysis placed 2025 at 1.44°C ± 0.13°C above the same baseline. Two of eight datasets ranked 2025 second, while the other six ranked it third.
The latest El Niño therefore arrives against an already elevated temperature baseline. WMO has also stressed that the long-term warming trend is driven primarily by the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, while natural climate patterns such as El Nino can add short-term variability.
India Faces Monsoon Pressure
India is particularly exposed because the southwest monsoon remains central to agricultural production and water availability. Around 70% of the country’s annual rainfall comes from the monsoon, while nearly half of its farmland does not have irrigation.
As of August 11, cumulative monsoon rainfall was 12% below average, according to Reuters. Andhra Pradesh was facing a deficit of as much as 34%. The India Meteorological Department expected rainfall over western, central and southern regions to weaken over the following two weeks.
The timing matters for farmers. Summer crop sowing had reached 96.8 million hectares by August 7, about 2% lower than a year earlier. Newly planted crops can be more vulnerable to dry spells because their root systems are still developing.
That does not mean a strong El Nino automatically guarantees a poor Indian monsoon. Weather outcomes vary between individual El Nino events and are influenced by other atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The current rainfall deficit, however, makes the evolution of the monsoon an important variable for agricultural markets.
Food And Business Risks
The immediate economic concern is therefore not simply whether 2026 breaks a temperature record. Weather volatility can affect crop yields, food prices, water availability and energy demand, with the impact differing across regions and industries.
For India, prolonged rainfall weakness could increase pressure on crops planted during the summer season. Any resulting production changes could feed into food-price movements, rural incomes and demand. But the current data does not support assuming that such outcomes will occur.
Globally, businesses with exposure to agricultural commodities and weather-sensitive supply chains will have to monitor the strength and duration of El Nino. The same applies to governments managing food and water resources.
What To Watch Next
The critical period will be the final months of 2026, when NOAA expects El Nino to strengthen further. WMO’s earlier June assessment had already put the probability of El Nino continuing into September-December at around 90%, although it cautioned that uncertainty remained over the event’s peak strength and timing.
If Berkeley Earth’s latest estimate holds, 2026 could overtake 2024 as the hottest calendar year on record. But the more consequential issue for economies may be how the unusually strong El Nino interacts with an already warmer climate and regional weather vulnerabilities.
For businesses and policymakers, the temperature record is therefore only one indicator to watch. Rainfall, crop conditions, water availability and commodity prices could provide a more immediate measure of the event’s economic impact.
The Logical Indian’s Perspective
Climate records are becoming increasingly difficult to view as distant environmental milestones. A potentially record-breaking 2026, alongside a strengthening El Niño, highlights how global warming and natural climate variability can combine to intensify weather risks.
For India, the focus should remain on rainfall, agriculture, food prices and water security rather than temperature records alone. Responsible climate policy, stronger forecasting systems and resilient agricultural practices can help communities and businesses prepare for greater uncertainty without creating unnecessary alarm.
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