For years, China’s 618 shopping festival was synonymous with explosive growth. Bigger discounts brought bigger orders, and the event became a powerful indicator of the country’s consumption trends.
But this year, despite stretching across more than a month and involving every major e-commerce platform, the world’s second-largest shopping festival delivered only marginal growth.
The numbers suggest that China’s consumers are still spending, but they are doing so cautiously, reflecting broader concerns about the country’s economic outlook.
Sales Growth Slows
According to retail analytics firm Syntun, gross merchandise value across major e-commerce platforms during the 2026 edition of the 618 shopping festival reached 863.6 billion yuan ($120.2 billion), compared with 855.6 billion yuan in 2025.
When food delivery and community group-buying businesses are included, overall transaction value rose to 934 billion yuan, or about $138 billion. Reuters reported that the broader figure represented growth of around 4%, while sales across major e-commerce platforms increased by less than 1%.
The festival, which originated as JD.com’s anniversary promotion on June 18, lasted for 37 days this year. Alibaba’s Tmall emerged as the largest platform by gross merchandise value, followed by JD.com and ByteDance-owned Douyin.
The figures show that China’s online retail sector remains enormous. However, the pace of expansion has slowed considerably compared with previous years.
Spending Momentum Weakens
The slowdown in 618 sales mirrors a broader weakness in consumption.
Official data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales fell 0.6% in May from a year earlier, marking the first decline since December 2022. The result underscored persistent weakness in household spending despite government efforts to stimulate demand.
Several categories experienced particularly sharp declines. Automobile sales dropped 16.1% year-on-year, while sales of home appliances and audio-visual products fell 15.6%. Building materials sales declined 13.6%.
Weakness in the property market, slower income growth and uncertainty surrounding the broader economy have weighed on consumer sentiment. Analysts cited by Reuters noted that households remain cautious about discretionary spending, even during one of the country’s largest annual promotional events.
Longer Promotions Matter
Another trend highlighted during this year’s festival was the changing nature of promotional campaigns.
Unlike earlier years, when the event was concentrated around June 18, platforms now begin offering discounts weeks in advance. Reuters reported that the prolonged sales period has diluted the sense of urgency that once characterised the shopping festival.
Analysts at HSBC estimated that 618 sales expanded by around 15% in 2025. Ahead of this year’s event, expectations were for only single-digit growth, reflecting the more subdued consumption environment.
The moderation in growth suggests that extending promotions alone is not enough to recreate the momentum seen during China’s consumer boom years.
AI Takes Centre Stage
Artificial intelligence emerged as one of the defining themes of this year’s festival.
E-commerce companies increasingly used AI-powered tools to improve product recommendations, customer service and advertising efficiency. At the same time, Beijing announced measures aimed at promoting the integration of artificial intelligence into consumption and services.
The Ministry of Commerce unveiled 17 initiatives intended to encourage AI adoption across a range of sectors. Policymakers hope that technological innovation can support new forms of consumption and improve productivity across the economy.
For China’s internet companies, AI is increasingly becoming a strategic priority rather than merely a new feature.
Economy Faces Imbalance
The weakness in consumption stands in contrast to relatively resilient industrial activity.
China’s industrial output increased 4.5% in May, accelerating from 4.1% in April and exceeding economists’ expectations. Manufacturing and exports have continued to provide support to the economy even as domestic demand remains subdued.
However, fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% during the first five months of 2026, highlighting the continuing drag from the property sector.
Chinese policymakers have repeatedly stressed the importance of boosting consumption as a driver of economic growth. Yet the latest retail figures suggest that rebuilding confidence among households remains a challenge.
Confidence Remains Crucial
By most standards, sales worth more than 900 billion yuan represent a remarkable achievement. But the significance of this year’s 618 shopping festival lies not in the size of the spending, but in the pace of growth.
China’s consumers have not disappeared. Yet the modest increase in sales, despite weeks of promotions and widespread participation from leading platforms, suggests that households remain careful about how and when they spend.
That makes the 618 shopping festival more than a retail event. Increasingly, it has become a gauge of consumer confidence.
And this year’s numbers indicate that confidence, rather than purchasing power, remains one of the biggest questions facing China’s economy.
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