India’s imports of Russian crude oil are on course to reach record levels in June 2026 as disruptions caused by the recent US-Iran conflict reshaped global energy flows and reduced the availability of Middle Eastern supplies.
According to data from global commodity analytics firm Kpler, India’s Russian crude imports could touch around 2.35 million barrels per day (bpd), surpassing previous highs recorded in 2023.
Analysts attribute the surge to a combination of discounted Russian oil, concerns over supply security following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and a temporary US sanctions waiver that allowed continued purchases.
While an interim peace agreement between Washington and Tehran has eased immediate concerns and maritime traffic is gradually recovering, experts believe Russian crude will continue to play a central role in India’s energy strategy due to its affordability and reliability.
Stakeholders across the energy sector see the trend as a practical response to global uncertainty, while policymakers continue balancing energy security, economic considerations and geopolitical realities.
Russian Oil Becomes Backbone
India’s dependence on Russian crude has grown steadily since Western sanctions redirected Moscow’s oil exports towards Asian markets, but the recent US-Iran conflict has accelerated that shift significantly.
Kpler’s tracking data until June 19 showed India’s Russian crude imports averaging approximately 2.66 million bpd, while estimates suggest June imports could settle at around 2.35 million bpd, potentially setting a new record and surpassing the previous high of 2.158 million bpd recorded in May 2023.
Speaking to The Times of India, Sumit Ritolia, Manager – Modelling and Refining at Kpler, said the strong import figures reflect both economic and operational considerations. “India’s imports remained strong through June, supported by continued discounts and steady refinery demand.
Russian barrels remain competitive against global benchmarks,” he said. According to data cited in reports, Russia has supplied more than 270 million barrels of crude oil to India during the period affected by the conflict, nearly five times the volume supplied by Saudi Arabia, the second-largest source.
For Indian refiners, Russian crude has become an important tool for managing costs and ensuring uninterrupted supplies at a time when global energy markets remain volatile.
Hormuz Disruptions Reshape Trade
The latest surge in Russian imports cannot be understood without examining the wider geopolitical backdrop. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, carries a significant share of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
During the US-Iran conflict, shipping through the region slowed sharply amid heightened security concerns, restrictions on vessel movement and fears of broader regional escalation. The disruption raised freight costs and created uncertainty for countries heavily dependent on Gulf energy supplies, including India.
According to Kpler’s analysis, India’s crude procurement strategy underwent a notable shift from March 2026 onwards. As Middle Eastern supplies became harder to access and freight risks increased, refiners diversified towards Russian, Venezuelan and Atlantic Basin crude.
Ritolia noted that “Russian crude remains the backbone of India’s import slate, while refiners have diversified aggressively toward Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan barrels to offset weaker Gulf availability.”
Bloomberg, citing Kpler data, reported that India’s imports of Middle Eastern crude fell during the second quarter of 2026 to their lowest level since at least 2013. State-owned refiners reportedly increased spot purchases from alternative suppliers to ensure supply continuity.
The trend also coincided with a temporary US sanctions waiver that allowed transactions involving Russian crude despite broader restrictions on Moscow’s energy sector.
Although reports suggest the waiver has now lapsed, analysts believe India’s purchases are unlikely to fall sharply in the near term because energy security and pricing advantages continue to favour Russian barrels.
The Logical Indian’s Perspective
India’s growing purchases of Russian crude highlight how international conflicts can reshape economic realities far beyond the immediate battlefield. For ordinary citizens, geopolitical tensions often translate into concerns about fuel prices, inflation, transportation costs and the affordability of everyday essentials.
The recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrate how interconnected the global economy has become, with events thousands of kilometres away influencing energy security and household budgets in India. At the same time, the shift towards diversified oil sourcing reflects the challenges countries face in balancing economic needs, strategic autonomy and diplomatic relationships in an increasingly uncertain world.
