The annual heat-related deaths could increase nearly fivefold by mid-century if current temperature trends persist without significant progress in adaptation measures, warns the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change in its eighth annual global report.
The report reveals that, against a backdrop of climate inaction, heat-related labor loss is projected to rise by 50 percent. Heatwaves alone could result in 524.9 million additional people experiencing moderate-to-severe food insecurity by 2041-60, exacerbating the global risk of malnutrition.
Furthermore, the report projects an increased spread of life-threatening infectious diseases by mid-century. The length of coastline suitable for Vibrio pathogens, responsible for food-borne diseases like cholera, is expected to expand by 17-25 percent. The transmission potential for dengue is predicted to increase by 36-37 percent.
The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, an international collaboration, monitors the evolving health profile of climate change and provides an independent assessment of governments’ commitments under the Paris Agreement.
The 2023 report emphasizes that climate inaction is already costing lives and livelihoods. The projections indicate a grave and mounting threat to health if action on climate change is further delayed.
The analysis reveals that human-caused climate change made over 60 percent of the total days reaching health-threatening high temperatures in 2020 more than twice as likely to occur. Heat-related deaths in people over 65 increased by 85 percent compared to 1990-2000.
Despite the urgency highlighted by such findings, the report notes that the world is often moving in the wrong direction. The 2022 Lancet Countdown report highlighted an opportunity to accelerate the transition away from health-harming fossil fuels, but the latest report shows little progress. Oil and gas companies are reducing compliance with the Paris Agreement, with emissions predicted to surpass goals by 173 percent in 2040.
Global fossil fuel investment increased by 10 percent in 2022, reaching over USD 1 trillion. The report emphasizes the need for a transition to clean energy, as the persistent use and expansion of fossil fuels threaten the lives of billions of people.
In a 62-country analysis that includes India, the report highlights household air pollution resulting in 140 deaths per 100,000 in 2020. The transition to renewables is seen as a solution, enabling access to decentralized clean energy and avoiding deaths due to exposure to pollution.
The report calls for a people-centered transformation, placing health at the heart of climate action. Urgent redirection of subsidies, lending, and investment away from fossil fuels is recommended. Health-centered urban redesign and increased urban green spaces are suggested to promote safe travel, reduce pollution, and enhance resilience to climate hazards.
As climate change poses a growing threat, coordinated action and a science-driven approach are deemed essential by health professionals, policymakers, corporations, and financial institutions to secure a healthier future.
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